Top 10 AI Player Prop Predictions for NBA 2025

AI is revolutionizing NBA player prop betting in 2025. By analyzing massive datasets, AI tools provide bettors with precise predictions on player performance, uncovering opportunities where market odds may not align with actual probabilities.

ArbBets provides AI-powered tools for sports betting, including arbitrage finders, value betting tools, AI picks, player props, and odds calculators. The platform helps users identify profitable betting opportunities through advanced AI technology and live betting analysis.

1. Victor Wembanyama — Points Per Game

AI predicts Victor Wembanyama will average 24.6 points per game, a jump of 3.2 points compared to current market projections. This expectation builds on his rookie season performance, where he averaged 21.4 PPG, largely due to his growing role on offense.

Key Factors

• Improved shooting efficiency (58.3% true shooting percentage)
• Higher 31.4% usage rate
• Strong performances against bottom-10 defensive teams (28.1 PPG)
• Home game boost (+2.1 PPG)
• Back-to-back game decline (-4.2%)

For bettors using our arbitrage betting tools, focus on over/under markets for Wembanyama's scoring, especially against teams with below-average interior defense.

2. Nikola Jokic — Rebounds Per Game

AI models predict Nikola Jokic will average 12.5 rebounds per game in the 2025 season, an increase from his career average of 11.8 RPG.

Performance Variables

• Home Games: +1.2 RPG boost
• Back-to-Back Games: -0.8 RPG decline
• Against Bottom-10 Rebounding Teams: +2.1 RPG increase

Best betting opportunities arise when:

• Line is below 11.5 rebounds
• Playing at home
• Facing weak rebounding teams

3. Luka Doncic — Assists Per Game

Dallas has revamped its offense to heavily rely on Luka Doncic, with 42% of possessions starting through him. AI models predict Doncic will average 9.5 assists per game, a +0.9 APG increase from his career average.

Key Factors Influencing Assists

• Home Games: +1.1 APG
• Back-to-Back Games: -0.7 APG
• Against High-Pace Teams: +1.3 APG
• Against Top Defenses: -0.9 APG

When to Bet

• Lines under 9.0 APG offer strong value
• Against Bottom-10 Defenses (+1.5 APG boost)
• When team roster is fully healthy

4. Stephen Curry — Three-Pointers Made

AI projects Curry to hit 4.8 three-pointers per game during the 2025 season. The Warriors' spacing-focused offense continues to maximize his shooting opportunities.

Performance Factors

• Home Court Advantage: +0.7 threes
• Back-to-Back Games: -0.5 threes
• Weak Perimeter Defense: +1.2 threes
• Extra Rest Days: +0.9 threes

Betting Strategy

• Target over 4.5 threes against bottom-10 three-point defenses
• Look for under opportunities in back-to-backs
• Consider home game/defensive matchup parlays

5. Jaren Jackson Jr. — Blocks Per Game

Expected to average 2.5 blocks per game, Jackson benefits from Memphis' league-leading 12.3% block rate. Using our prop betting analysis, we've identified key opportunities.

Best Betting Scenarios

• Home Games vs. Fast-Paced Teams (55+ paint touches)
• After 2+ Rest Days (+0.3 blocks)
• Consider blocks + steals parlays against turnover-prone teams

6. Mikal Bridges — Steals Per Game

AI models project Bridges averaging 1.8 steals per game this season, a slight bump of +0.1 from 2023-24. This uptick ties to Brooklyn's emphasis on perimeter defense.

High-Value Betting Scenarios

• Line at 1.5 steals or lower
• Opponents averaging 15+ turnovers per game
• Home games with 2+ rest days
• Back-to-back games show -0.2 steals decline

7. Domantas Sabonis — Double-Doubles

Sabonis emerges as one of the NBA's most reliable double-double producers in 2025.

Key Betting Opportunities

• Against small-ball lineups (+15% rebounding efficiency)
• 2+ days rest versus bottom-10 rebounding teams
• Home games with favorable matchups

Impact Factors

• Strong interior defense can limit scoring opportunities
• Blowout games may reduce minutes
• Advanced metrics support combining points/rebounds props

8. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Minutes Played

Projected to average 34.5 minutes per game, a +2.0 increase from previous seasons.

Factors Impacting Minutes

• Tight scheduling weeks affect playing time
• Close games increase minutes
• Backup guard availability
• Load management considerations

Best Betting Scenarios

• Home games with extended rest
• Competitive matchups
• Full roster availability

9. Kevin Durant — Field Goal Percentage

AI predicts Durant maintaining a 49.5% field goal percentage in 2025, aligned with his career 49.3% average.

Key Performance Indicators

• 2+ days rest: 51.4% FG percentage
• Home games with rest: Over 50% success rate
• Back-to-back games: Below 48% efficiency

Impact Variables

• Defensive matchups
• Rest periods
• Home/road splits
• Shot selection patterns

10. Giannis Antetokounmpo — Free Throw Attempts

Projected 9.8 free throw attempts per game, a 15.3% increase from 2023-24.

Key Performance Drivers

• Home games versus physical teams: 11.2 FTA
• Matchups against weak rim protection
• 64.1% free throw accuracy rate
• Defensive strategy impact

Final Thoughts

AI technology is transforming prop betting by analyzing complex performance patterns and identifying mispriced odds. Success requires combining these insights with proper bankroll management and understanding of game contexts.